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Monday, May 6, 2013

马来西亚5月5日2013大选 民联为何会输?Why Pakatan Rakyat loses the 13th General Election 5/5/2013?


1) 欲了解马来西亚大选投票流程,请点这里
2) 欲了解马来西亚5月5日大选成绩和情况,请点这里

民联为何会输?国阵为何会赢?
Why Pakatan Rakyat loses the 13th General Election 5/5/2013?
看到一篇来自Facebook James Yeang 的文章。某些观点确实赞同。
Saw a Facebook post written by James Yeang. Do agree with some point.

So it's over. Congratulations Barisan Nasional for winning the elections. Congratulations Pakatan Rakyat for winning the popular vote.
Thank you for coming out to vote. A turnout of more than 80% is something truly applaudable.
Here's one thing which may differ from what a lot of people are saying:
This was NOT a dirty elections day.
It was a reasonably fair elections day.
The elections system, in place since years ago however, is another story all together.
To all voters, you must understand that this happened because of ONE THING, and ONE THING ONLY. Deeply entrenched SPR gerrymandering, which has existed since eons ago, and is something we entered the elections fully aware of, with both eyes open, but were unable to overcome this round.
You should not be able to LOSE the popular vote and still win the elections by such a HUGE parliamentary margin.
Nothing else is a real major factor. Not the 'phantom voters' , not the vote buying, not the inaccurate electoral roll, not the scare tactics, not the postal votes.
All the 'dirty' tactics are in place as a distraction, nothing more.
Even if everything was cleaned up, and there was no vote buying, no phantom voters, no postal votes irregularities...

...PR would STILL LOSE (Lose less, but still lose).
Saying otherwise would be like saying you lost a 1 on 1 basketball game with Michael Jordan because you weren't wearing the right shoes, or had a bad breakfast.

WHY PAKATAN RAKYAT LOST:
The way our parliamentary system is drawn out is so that BN can retain power by winning the non urban areas in Malaysia.
BN can lose EVERY SINGLE MAJOR URBAN CITY, and STILL win the elections. BN segments the country into...
Places which you can't control with an iron fist, and people don't really need you (urban) - lump them into a few seats.
vs
Places which really, really need your little handouts (non-urban) - break them out into many seats.
You can win the Malaysian elections with less than 20% of the popular vote. This is not a secret.
This is why PR lost.
Previously when BN held the popular vote you could argue that it didn't matter because it's still the will of the people.
Now, you really can't, because for the first time in history, more people voted against BN, and it's really not the will of the people now, so gerrymandering sticks out like a sore thumb.

HOW BN KEEPS BLATANT GERRYMANDERING UNDER CONTROL
This issue is however, hidden in the claims of 'phantom voters' , vote buying, inaccurate electoral roll, scare tactics, postal votes.
BN throws up 5 intentionally bad election practices, PR picks up on it, and makes a big deal out of it.
BN ends up fixing (poorly) a couple of issues, and then claims elections reform. While everyone is so fixated about stopping Bangladeshis at polling stations, and extremely soluble indelible ink, no one really champions the gerrymandering to any great extent. Possibly because it's a much drier and less outrageous subject...

...and everybody forgets that if...
You can win the Malaysian elections with less than 20% of the popular vote.
...the 'bangla' in the corner doesn't really matter much.
It is highly likely that PR resources after today will be spread thin covering the numerous election issues rather than focusing on the one that REALLY counts.

So congratulations BN also for the amazing 'wag the dog' tactics over the years. I wish you'd put such electoral genius to good use in running the country.
ps. If you think this is too smart for BN, you're probably right.
This entire gerrymandering system was constructed before the previous 2 prime ministers. Everyone else in BN today is just reaping the 'benefits'.
ps. I'm not an armchair critic. I've done everything from voter registrations in shopping complexes to the entire slew of election duties in 3 elections.(James, 2013)

——————————————————————

To all Malaysians:
Please don't misunderstand Chinese and Indian! Don't try to provoke racial issues! We don't have racial prejudice and don't have the rights to look down on anyone. We also feel proud to have Malay, Chinese, Indian and indigenous as our friends and becomes 1 Malaysia! But we just want to choose the government that really cares and loves us! Because we love Malaysia, so we need to fight for a peaceful and 'CLEAN' country! No corruption, no bribery! No lazy police! We need safety! We need efficient country! We need fair education system! Please think of your future generations! We can't just focus on the short-term benefit without thinking of our next generations.  

For those who are Malay, please understand that this is not an issue of perkauman between Malay VS Chinese. The reason why all Chinese people supported & voted for Pakatan Rakyat because we think it's Clean & Uncorrupt & have Capable Leaders. From the past results, because of Barisan Nasional and the government, our country becomes corrupted and suffered a financial crisis right now! So that's why we want to change

We don't need Chinese to govern this country and we know it's impossible. What Chinese people are seeking is Good and Clean Leaders that can govern our country well, so that we can have racial harmony, so that we can have a sense of belonging in our home country land without discrimination, so that we can have a safer country to live in, so that we can have justice for everyone, leaders without corruptions, an uncorrupted judiciary & police force, open media, open tender, better healthcare & education system, better economic growth and have a better democratic system!

So that at the end of the day, all of us (Malay, Chinese, Indian, Iban, Dayak, Kadazan and others) can UNITE TOGETHER HOLDING HANDS and bring our country forward to achieve a Developed Nation in 2020!

Islam is a peaceful religion & its believed by about 1.6 billion people in the world. We have no issue at all even your entire cabinet are all Malays and practices Islam as long as they're CLEAN & BERSIH MALAY LEADERS we are already very grateful about it.

Hidup Melayu! Hidup Islam! Hidup Cina! Hidup India! 

Satu Malaysia Satu Family!
Dato' Seri Anwar bin Ibrahim also can become our prime minister!
We just want a Clean & Safe & Better Malaysia!
 
——————————————————————————
我不否认政府有使出极之肮脏的手段,但相信这“划选区”才是国阵胜利的最大原因!没想到在以前就已部署好了!可到今天才知道 @.@ 究竟做了多少年鲁鲁?我没想得如此周详,只是感到很奇怪为何东马会有那么多国会议席?!而西马每个州就一点一点国会议席,原来是因为看中东马那里没什么发展,没什么苛求,简简单单,只要给点甜头就容易满足,容易搞掂。所以把那里的选区划到那么多!你知道吗?东马的国席比例已经是超过总数的4分之1了!假如有天连东马也发展成像吉隆坡一样,那政府可又会重新划分了!真可恶。

难怪民联赢的选区,总是拥有高数票,就是赢就赢到整几十条街那样,甚至高达50000多张的也有!而国阵赢的选区,区区5000张就赢了一个选区,金马仑那个更够力,才几百张国阵就轻易赢了那个国席!政府,你这 “选区划分” 也太精明了吧,只能感慨我们技不如人了。

而且这样做未必十拿九稳,来个$$$$收买人心,来个Oppa Gangnam Style,来个不褪色墨汁误导人民,来个外劳风波,来个乱拍影片广告中伤别的党,再来个终极大停电,什么趋势也可被扭转~~~

最够力的就是有些议席,反对党还鬼打鬼,同个反对党竟然有2个选手!结果分散了票,国阵胜!更够力的是总会有独立人士出来搅和 @.@

不仅如此,大多数国阵赢的都是UMNO党。这是当然,马来人和土著的福利多华人和印度人几十条街,自然不会知道我们这些二等良民的苦!要这些人知道?等到国阵贪污到极点的那一天吧!只有土著发现被剥夺福利的那一刻才会体会我们的 “苦” ,才知道事态严重!现在?火都还没烧到他们一根手指头呢~~ 才懒得理会我们。结果多数马来人或土著居住的地盘没发展的地方包括乡村的选民都只管投选他们认为最好的巫统,怕死没了那些所谓的福利$$$,结果保住国阵了咯!哎,要知道眼前利益不长久,国家已经负债累累,美好时光不再。土著人,马来人,你们可要为自己,为你们的下一代着想呀~~

我們新任首相納吉在大選後把人民的訴求形容為‘華人大海嘯’。我固然無法明白為何大選後所有標籤都是如此種族性敢形容“华人大海啸”?是全民大海啸吧?华人哪有那么多,民联赢了选举总数票的叻~~ 这证明了许多马来人和印度人也很不爽你们的!怎么就不想想你的国阵都干了什么好事?你镇不住你那些牛鬼蛇神还敢说我们?这个人祸根本就是你们造成的!试问下你们国阵真有做到干净 和 以民为本吗?

哪来的一个马来西亚?哪来的公平?哪来的正义?
总结来说,我们技不如人就是了。
不过还是很高兴昨天所有有投票的人民,至少证明了你是爱马来西亚,不忘恩负义!
有做好人民本分,而且很团结~ 给有投票的自己鼓励掌声!
也给那些有呼吁别人投票的朋友鼓励掌声!至少民联赢了Popular Vote总票数!
假如不是有关心与思考国家政治大选,相信永远也不会察觉这个大大漏洞

只能怪我们后知后觉,竟然输给了“划分选区”!
_________________________________________________________
Global Voice! From net friend
人民心声

这篇一定要看!讲到心坎里去了。看了你就会更清楚为何民联会输了这届的选举。

作者:Adrian Tan,森美兰
很多人說民主已死,說選舉不公平。我想問,今天民聯真正做不了政府,是因為選舉不公平,還是民聯在郊區巫裔和沙砂土著的不獲支持?

除了高喊選舉不公平之外,你們是否有看到,巫裔和土著?有那麼多外勞和鬼嗎?砂拉越25個土著國席,我們有真正進去看看嗎?那裡有「鬼」嗎?砂拉越有「M」計劃嗎?絕大多數都是當地人,可是,為何他們不選擇民聯?

華人,不要只看到自己的生活圈子,一個國家的政治,不是只是華人而已,也不是只是城市馬來人而已。郊區的馬來人,沙砂的土著,他們的想法是至關緊要的!

認同選區劃分的不公平,但這個是要在國會獲2/3時才能改變,倒是可以改變的,是真正走進去沙砂的土著區,好好的去付出,並且在郊區馬來人群體中,想一個最佳的策略吸引他們。

今天就算再選舉,你們認為選舉成績會有改變嗎?再選舉,你們認為土著和郊區馬來人就會一夜之間轉而支持民聯嗎?答案是肯定的:不會!

城市的反風和華人的反風,並不足以讓民聯執政,土著的反風和郊區馬來的反風,才是真正的改朝換代造王者!

清醒吧!重選的答案依然會一樣,除非通過國會2/3重新劃分選區,重選或還有機會,否則,就是從今日起,華人好好走進馬來甘榜和土著區把你們的改朝換代思維在郊區傳開,而不要只是呆在城市。你只要影響一半的鄉區選民和土著,你就是真正幫到民聯。

否則,高喊選舉不公,把面子書變成黑色,一切都是不實際!!!想一個最佳策略,改變鄉區馬來人和土著的思維,這才是最有效的!


大马艺人 谢松汎 的评论:
其实,这一次的所谓反风,的确让很多原本政治冷感的华人关心起自己国家的政治,这是好事,我自己就是一个常年厌恶政治的"肮脏"而选择不管的例子。但事实上政治关乎我们生活每一处,也就因为我们很多人长期抱持的态度,使我们的政治触觉微弱、政治认知不充足。近期因为突然醒觉的政治意识让我学习很多,希望改朝换代的强烈意愿促使我想要懂得更多、了解更多以便可以做得更多更有效的争取。这一个学习过程,我恳请每一位真心想改朝换代的人认清楚它的重要性,我们为的是长远的民主意识。版主讲解的是根本的问题,他说得很有道理,况且版主并没有否认他对舞弊的不满。或者应该这么说,大家是有心要国家和我们的生活环境更好的话,就不应该放弃争取,就更不应该只有一味的气愤和投射负面情绪。这时候,应该平静下来,为更好的未来而学习更多。政治和选举原则上来说就是一种游戏,有太多的规则与漏洞。定规则的人当然为自己铺好路。而目前要直接改变那不公平的游戏规则是几乎不可能的,唯一的可能性就只有掌控三分二的国席。而偏偏,就因为选区划分的不公,致使乡区占有议席居多数,而这些乡区就是反风最弱的地方,也是民联最无力的区域。各位,版主要大家明白的不外是,民联要三分二国席才能改变游戏规则重新划分选区;要三分二国席就一定要拿下乡区的国席;要乡区国席就一定要明白乡区、了解乡区人要的是什么。各位朋友,大家加油吧!我们要环境有所进步,我们自己也得有所进步,至少在政治这一块要再深入学习,也要更明白,民主从何而来,自由是什么回事,自由有什么责任。
说得好 Bravo!故我们一定要团结~ 创造美好的未来,创造一个真正的马来西亚!记得,我们并没有种族歧视任何人,我们也没资格这么做!我们只是在选择干净,公平,以民为本的政府,因为我们爱马来西亚!我们也很荣幸能跟马来人和印度人成为三大民族。错只错在政府不能真正做到干净,公平,以民为本。

19 comments:

  1. well said, the gerrymandering systems is the main issue but it can only be changed if get more than 2/3 seats. Bumiputra population is quite large in our country.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yes, so need to get another solution. Hopefully bumiputra will realize the threaten life situation.

      Delete
  2. agree, what we need is clean and capable leader. we don't have racial discrimination.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Chua Boon Tai (转载)
    本届大选,民联无法实现中央变天,就让我们来看看民联取得的一些收获及突破。

    柔佛
    公正党首次在柔佛州国会选区获胜,赢得Batu Pahat 国会议席 ,而且是击败巫统原任副教育部长 Puad Zarkashi。
    民联在国阵的堡垒柔佛州至少6个国会选区以低于2000张多数票落败。
    行动党首次在柔佛州的国会选区击败巫统候选人。林吉祥击败原任州务大臣Ghani。
    伊斯兰党首次在柔佛州赢得多达4个州议席。
    公正党首次在柔佛州赢得1个州议席。
    行动党首次在柔佛州赢得多达13个州议席( 竞选14席,只Paloh 以微差落败)
    民联在柔佛州赢得历来最多的18个州议席( 近1/3,州席总数为56 )

    马六甲
    伊斯兰党首次在马六甲赢得1个州议席。
    公正党首次在马六甲州国会选区获胜。赢得一个国会议席 Bukit Katil,而且是击败巫统原任首席部长Ali Rustam

    森美兰
    行动党赢得全部所竞选的11个州议席 , 而民联继续在州议会占有超过1/3席位。

    雪兰莪
    巩固雪州政权。国会议席和州议席得票和多数票都大幅度增加。更一口气增加8个州议席,从36席对20席 提高至44席对12席。民联所获得的马来票显著增加 。
    伊斯兰党击败巫统的前任工程部长 Mohd Zin, 从巫统手中赢得Sepang国会议席。
    行动党赢得全部所竞选的4个国席和15个州议席

    霹雳
    行动党赢得全部所竞选的7个国席和18个州议席, 而民联在霹雳州议会保持强大在野党的形势,赢得28个州议席 ( 州席总数为59 )
    公正党候选人在Lumut 国席击败马华原任交通部长江作汉 。

    槟城
    巩固槟州政权。国会议席和州议席得票和多数票都大幅度增加,而且以狂风扫落叶之势胜出,有两位马华候选人甚至空前的丧失按柜金。民联所获得的马来票也有所增加。共赢得30个州议席。( 州席总数为40 )
    行动党竞选7个国席和19个州议席全胜。
    公正党增加1个州议席,共赢得10席 。

    吉打
    行动党首次在吉打州赢得多达2个州议席。
    公正党候选人在Alor Setar国席击败马华原任房屋部长曹智雄。

    玻璃市
    公正党首次在玻璃市州赢得1个州议席。

    彭亨
    行动党首次在彭亨州赢得国会议席,并由巫裔候选人(巫统前领袖)赢得。
    行动党首次在彭亨州由巫裔候选人赢得州议席。
    行动党首次在彭亨州赢得多达7个州议席。
    公正党首次在彭亨州赢得2个州议席。
    民联在彭亨州赢得历来最多的11个州议席( 近1/3 , 州席总数为42 )
    伊斯兰党青年团总团长击败巫统的原任副高等教育部长,赢得Temerloh 国会议席。

    登嘉楼
    伊斯兰党在登嘉楼州大有斩获,赢得多达4个国会议席及15个州议席,形成强大在野党的形势。( 州席总数为32 ,17席为简单多数席) 。

    吉兰丹
    回教党在巫统猛攻下保住州政权。

    砂拉越
    行动党首次在砂拉越州赢得5个国会议席。
    公正党首次在砂拉越州赢得1个国会议席。

    沙巴
    公正党首次在沙巴州国会选区获胜。赢得一个国会议席 Penampang,而且是击败民统党魁也是原任联邦部长Bernard Dompok 。
    公正党首次在沙巴州赢得州议席,而且一口气赢7席。
    民联在沙巴州赢得历来最多的11个州议席,行动党赢4席,公正党赢7席(州席总数为60)

    吉隆玻
    行动党以巨大多数票赢得所有竞选的5个国会议席。
    公正党的华裔候选人在Wangsa Maju 击败巫统的候选人
    公正党的候选人在Lembah Pantai 击败巫统的原任联邦自辖区部长 Raja Nong Chik。

    总结
    多项收获和突破。
    民联不但成功捍卫了雪兰莪州和槟城州的州政权, 还进一步巩固这两州的州政权。 基于这两州是经济大州, 而且民联在第一届任期开始推行的良好施政深获好评,民联在第二届任期的延续良好施政将进一步巩固下届大选问鼎中央政权的基础。

    除了玻璃市没赢得国会议席,民联首次在每一个州都拥有至少两位国会议员。
    行动党首次有超过一位巫裔候选人赢得国会议席 。
    民联候选人在全国各地多个国会选区击败了国阵的重量级候选人包括联邦部长,副部长 , 原任首席部长,州务大臣等。

    民联在霹雳,登嘉楼,森美兰,甚至是彭亨和柔佛的州议会都形成强大在野党的形势。国阵在霹雳,登嘉楼 ,森美兰都只以微差的简单多数席执政。而国阵在彭亨和柔佛都以刚好足够2/3 的多数席执政。

    其实民联成绩非常明显的比308还好,只是当我们把目标从否决国阵的国会2/3多数席提升到要问鼎中央政权,那就肯定会觉得这成绩还不达标。华裔选民几乎倾全力投民联是事实 , 而所谓马来票回流国阵其实也不完全。如果马来选民完全没有掀起反风,伊斯兰党和公正党的候选人也不会在全国各地的多个国会选区击败巫统的重量级人物,以及在国阵的堡垒柔佛州多个国州选区降低巫统候选人的多数票。
    民联在国会将再次拥有超过1/3议席,以及各州议会的众多议席, 肯定能进一步巩固下届大选问鼎中央政权的基础。

    **别再说什么华人大海啸。大部分马来人和印度人也很不爽你们国阵的好不好,想都想到华人人口哪有那么多,别把责任推到华人身上,自己想下自己都干了什么事吧!国家负债累累,贪污,都是你们搞的!若要人不知,除非己莫为。

    ReplyDelete
  4. 重新划分选区就是bersih机会的其中一个诉求,只不过没成功,这真的是问题的根源所在。

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 对,所以希望能找到其他方案,毕竟要再拿到2/3席位并非易事,但世事无绝对,再不容易也有机会成功变天!人民一定要团结!

      希望所有马来西亚人都醒悟到事情的严重性。
      Kita Anak Malaysia!

      Delete
  5. 心知就好,所以大家才會把那天說成最黑暗的一天吧。

    ReplyDelete
  6. Ubah Ubah! Good job Kelana Jaya!

    ReplyDelete
  7. 選舉結束才一個星期就急著展開邊加蘭的國光石化計劃了。
    非要把馬來西亞搞得不能住人嗎!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 估计是欠债太多,要还钱 =(

      Delete

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